Modelling of wreckage trajectories following in-flight breakup

The study of ballistic trajectories is well-­established, with work dating back to the 1940s. More recently, ballistic trajectory analysis has been used by air accident investigators in an attempt to understand events leading up to an accident, with notable examples including the investigation into the Lockerbie bombing. Building on the history of a previous model, this thesis offers an enhanced model for the calculation of ballistic trajectories incorporating altitude dependence for wind, density and gravity. Attempts to solve the model analytically were unsuccessful, and therefore, the model was solved numerically using an implicit scheme, to deal with the inherent stiffness of the equations, and an extrapolation technique. Cubic splines were used to accurately represent the wind proUile in an analytical way. The numerical solution was veriUied against a simpliUied analytical case and results are presented for two simulated breakup cases. Four key parameters were then varied to provide information about the sensitivity of Uinal wreckage location to variation in system parameters. The results indicate that for simulated large aircraft breakups, low ballistic coefUicient items are most heavily affected by breakup altitude, wind magnitude and wind angle whereas large ballistic coefUicient items are most heavily affected by breakup velocity, although to a much lesser extent (around 15% of the distance of low ballistic coefUicient). For small aircraft breakups, wind angle and breakup altitude have the largest effect on low ballistic coefUicient items, with velocity and altitude affecting high ballistic coefUicient items to a larger extent (around 50% of low ballistic coefUicient items). The results will allow investigators to understand better the factors which affect items of differing ballistic coefUicient in different situations. The project as a whole provides a new solution engine for the trajectory problem which can form the basis of a new software package for investigators

Multidisciplinary group performance—measuring integration intensity in the context of the North West London Integrated Care Pilot

Introduction: Multidisciplinary Group meetings (MDGs) are seen as key facilitators of integration, moving from individual to multidisciplinary decision-making, and from a focus on individual patients to a focus on patient groups. We have developed a method for coding MDG transcripts to identify whether they are or are not vehicles for delivering the anticipated efficiency improvements across various providers and apply it to a test case in the North West London Integrated Care Pilot. Methods: We defined ‘integrating’ as the process within the MDG meeting that enables or promotes an improved collaboration, improved understanding, and improved awareness of self and others within the local healthcare economy such that efficiency improvements could be identified and action taken. Utterances within the MDGs are coded according to three distinct domains grounded in concepts from communication, group decision-making, and integrated care literatures—the Valence, the Focus, and the Level. Standardized weighted integrative intensity scores are calculated across ten time deciles in the Case Discussion providing a graphical representation of its integrative intensity. Results: Intra- and Inter-rater reliability of the coding scheme was very good as measured by the Prevalence and Bias-adjusted Kappa Score. Standardized Weighted Integrative Intensity graph mirrored closely the verbatim transcript and is a convenient representation of complex communication dynamics. Trend in integrative intensity can be calculated and the characteristics of the MDG can be pragmatically described. Conclusion: This is a novel and potentially useful method for researchers, managers and practitioners to better understand MDG dynamics and to identify whether participants are integrating. The degree to which participants use MDG meetings to develop an integrated way of working is likely to require management, leadership and shared values

Evaluation of complex integrated care programmes: the approach in North West London

Background: Several local attempts to introduce integrated care in the English National Health Service have been tried, with limited success. The Northwest London Integrated Care Pilot attempts to improve the quality of care of the elderly and people with diabetes by providing a novel integration process across primary, secondary and social care organisations. It involves predictive risk modelling, care planning, multidisciplinary management of complex cases and an information technology tool to support information sharing. This paper sets out the evaluation approach adopted to measure its effect. Study design: We present a mixed methods evaluation methodology. It includes a quantitative approach measuring changes in service utilization, costs, clinical outcomes and quality of care using routine primary and secondary data sources. It also contains a qualitative component, involving observations, interviews and focus groups with patients and professionals, to understand participant experiences and to understand the pilot within the national policy context. Theory and discussion: This study considers the complexity of evaluating a large, multi-organisational intervention in a changing healthcare economy. We locate the evaluation within the theory of evaluation of complex interventions. We present the specific challenges faced by evaluating an intervention of this sort, and the responses made to mitigate against them. Conclusions: We hope this broad, dynamic and responsive evaluation will allow us to clarify the contribution of the pilot, and provide a potential model for evaluation of other similar interventions. Because of the priority given to the integrated agenda by governments internationally, the need to develop and improve strong evaluation methodologies remains strikingly important

Pilot’s attention distributions between chasing a moving target and a stationary target

Introduction: Attention plays a central role in cognitive processing; ineffective attention may induce accidents in flight operations. The objective of current research was to examine military pilots’ attention distributions between chasing a moving target and a stationary target. Method: Thirty-seven mission-ready F-16 pilots participated in the current research. Subjects’ eye movements were collected by a portable head-mounted eye-tracker during tactical training in a flight simulator. The scenarios of chasing a moving target (air-to-air) and a stationary target (air-to-surface) consist of three operational phases; searching, aiming and lock-on to the targets. Results: The findings demonstrated significant differences in pilots’ percentage of fixation during searching phase between air-to-air (M=37.57, SD=5.72) and air-to-surface (M=33.54, SD=4.68). Fixation duration can indicate pilots’ sustained attention to the trajectory of a dynamic target during dog-fight manoeuvers. Aiming for the stationary target with larger pupil size (M=27105 pixel2, SD=6565 pixel2) reflects higher cognitive loading than aiming to the dynamic target (M=23864 pixel2, SD=8762 pixel2). Discussion: Pilots’ visual behavior is not only closely related to attention distribution, but also significantly associated with task characteristics. Military pilots demonstrated various visual scan patterns for searching and aiming to different types of targets based on the research settings of flight simulator. The findings would facilitate system designers’ understandings of military pilots’ cognitive processes during tactical operations. It will assist human-centered interface design to improve pilots’ situational awareness. The application of an eye-tracking device integrated with a flight simulator is a feasible and cost-effective intervention to improve efficiency and safety of tactical training

Aerodynamic levitator furnace for measuring thermophysical properties of refractory liquids

The development of novel contactless aerodynamic laser heated levitation techniques is reported that enable thermophysical properties of refractory liquids to be measured in situ in the solid, liquid, and supercooled liquid state and demonstrated here for alumina. Starting with polished crystalline ruby spheres, we show how, by accurately measuring the changing radius, the known density in the solid state can be reproduced from room temperature to the melting point at 2323 K. Once molten, by coupling the floating liquid drop to acoustic oscillations via the levitating gas, the mechanical resonance and damping of the liquid can be measured precisely with high-speed high-resolution shadow cast imaging. The resonance frequency relates to the surface tension, the decay constant to the viscosity, and the ellipsoidal size and shape of the levitating drop to the density. This unique instrumentation enables these related thermophysical properties to be recorded in situ over the entire liquid and supercooled range of alumina, from the boiling point at 3240 K, until spontaneous crystallization occurs around 1860 K, almost 500 below the melting point. We believe that the utility that this unique instrumentation provides will be applicable to studying these important properties in many other high temperature liquids

Polarimetric imaging for air accident investigation

We report a trial wherein a simple 4 CCD visible-band Polarimetric Imaging (PI) camera was fielded against aircraft debris distributed across an arid terrain, a littoral region and a small number of maritime debris targets A debris field realistically simulating an aircrash and a debris grid of aircraft remains were observed from an air platform flying in dry and sunny conditions. We report PI utility in support of air accident investigation by an enhanced ability to successfully locate small targets within the scene via the use of colour enhanced and decorrelated intensity PI products. Our results indicate that handheld PI capability may represent an effective low cost, upgrade and augmentation option for existing and future imaging systems that would support air accident investigators and assist in the cueing of more sophisticated assets and/or analyst attention

Evaluation of living well, taking control: A community-based diabetes prevention and management programme

IntroductionType 2 diabetes is a serious, expensive and growing public health challenge. In England, national guidance recommends intensive lifestyle interventions promoting weight loss for people at risk of diabetes and programmes of individualised care, information and advice for those recently diagnosed with type 2 diabetes (NICE, 2012; NICE, 2015). There has been little formal evaluation of ‘real-world’ type 2 diabetes prevention and management programmes in the UK, particularly those delivered by community and voluntary agencies. To inform options for action on type 2 diabetes, there is an urgent need for evidence on the implementation and effectiveness of innovative service models.Living Well, Taking ControlLiving Well, Taking Control (LWTC) is a programme designed to prevent and manage type 2 diabetes in non-clinical, community settings. Between July 2013 and October 2015, LWTC was led by Westbank Community Health and Care, and funded as part of the Big Lottery Fund’s (BLF) Wellbeing Programme. LWTC was delivered through third-sector agencies Westbank based in Devon, and Health Exchange in the West Midlands. The programme is compliant with NICE guidance. Evaluation questionsThe evaluation sought to address the following research questions:1.What are the characteristics of the population that the programme attracts?2.What are the patterns of participation in the programme?3.How well does the programme perform in terms of the main outcomes of weight loss and change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and secondary outcomes (e.g. physical activity, diet, mental wellbeing)?4.What is the association between programme exposure and outcomes?5.What is the association between practice effects (changes in delivery over time) and outcomes?Evaluation methodsThe evaluation is based upon a pre-post assessment of the experiences of programme participants, with additional data derived from programme delivery records. All individuals taking part in LWTC were asked to complete questionnaires and provide biometric measures at the point of enrolment between November 2013 and April 2015. Participants provided follow-up data for a minimum of six months post-enrolment up to the end of October 2015. In addition, all participants who had reached the point of 12 months post-enrolment were asked to provide further follow-up data.Key FindingsParticipants enrolled in LWTC achieved statistically significant improvements in weight and most associated measures (BMI, waist circumference), for those with pre-diabetes and diabetes, at six-month and 12-month measurement points. Of those participants who provided data, 2kg weight loss was achieved by 41.9% (n=156/372) at Month 6 and 44.2% (n=73/165) at Month 12. The 2kg weight loss was achieved by more participants with pre-diabetes than those with diabetes, with 42.9% (n=115/268) and 39.4% (n=41/104), respectively at Month 6. Weight loss and HbA1c were, in the main, closely paralleled by changes in the secondary outcome measures. Overall, there were statistically significant positive changes in general health state, overall life satisfaction, mental wellbeing, anxiety and depression, and self-reported diet at both Months 6 and 12. However, changes in self-reported physical activity were not statistically significant at either measurement point.Further details on the findings are available in the main report.ConclusionsThe evaluation findings suggest potential positive effects of LWTC on diabetes risk and the early stage management of diabetes. The LWTC programme model offers a number of features that are important for scaling up and embedding action on type 2 diabetes. LWTC incorporates key elements of NICE guidance on both the prevention and management of type 2 diabetes. It has developed successful methods for recruitment in partnership with primary care agencies. The programme builds upon the local expertise and capacity of third sector providers, trained community facilitators and local partner agencies

Ironless wheel motor for a direct drive vehicle application

An ironless motor for use as direct wheel drive is presented. The motor is intended for use in a lightweight (600kg), low drag, series hybrid commuter vehicle under development at The University of Queensland. The vehicle will utilise these ironless motors in each of its rear wheels, with each motor producing a peak torque output of 500Nm and a maximum rotational speed of 1500rpm. The axial flux motor consists of twin Ironless litz wire stators with a central magnetic ring and simplified Halbach magnet arrays on either side. A small amount of iron is used to support the outer Halbach arrays and to improve the peak magnetic flux density. Ducted air cooling is used to remove heat from the motor and will allow for a continuous torque rating of 250Nm. Ironless machines have previously been shown to be effective in high speed, high frequency applications (+1000Hz). They are generally regarded as non-optimal for low speed applications as iron cores allow for better magnet utilisation and do not significantly increase the weight of a machine. However, ironless machines can also be seen to be effective in applications where the average torque requirement is much lower than the peak torque requirement such as in some vehicle drive applications. The low spinning losses in ironless machines are shown to result in very high energy throughput efficiency in a wide range of vehicle driving cycles

The UltraCommuter : a viable and desirable solar-powered commuter vehicle

The University of Queensland UltraCommuter project is the demonstration of an ultra-light weight, low drag, energy efficient and low polluting, electric commuter vehicle equipped with a 2.5m2 on-board solar array. A key goal of the project is to make the vehicle predominantly self-sufficient from solar power for normal driving purposes , so that it does not require charging or refuelling from off-board sources. This paper examines the technical feasibility of the solar-powered commuter vehicle concept, as it applies the UltraCommuter project. A parametric description of a solar-powered commuter vehicle is presented. Real solar insolation data is then used to predict the solar driving range for the UltraCommuter and this is compared to typical urban usage patterns for commuter vehicles in Queensland. A comparative analysis of annual greenhouse gas emissions from the vehicle is also presented. The results show that the UltraCommuter’s on-board solar array can provide substantial supplementation of the energy required for normal driving, powering 90% of annual travel needs for an average QLD passenger vehicle. The vehicle also has excellent potential to reduce annual greenhouse gas emissions from the private transport sector, achieving a 98% reduction in CO2 emissions when compared to the average QLD passenger vehicle. Lastly, the vehicle battery pack provides for tolerance to consecutive days of poor weather without resorting to grid charging, giving uninterrupted functionality to the user. These results hold great promise for the technical feasibility of the solar-powered commuter vehicle concept

Multidisciplinary integration in the context of integrated care - results from the North West London Integrated Care Pilot

Background: In the context of integrated care, Multidisciplinary Group meetings involve participants from diverse professional groups and organisations and are potential vehicles to advance efficiency improvements within the local health economy. We advance a novel method to characterise the communication within Multidisciplinary Group meetings measuring the extent to which participants integrate and whether this integration leads to improved working. Methods: We purposively selected four Multidisciplinary Group meetings and conducted a content analysis of audio-recorded and transcribed Case Discussions. Two coders independently coded utterances according to their 'integrative intensity' which was defined against three a-priori independent domains - the Level (i.e. Individual, Collective and Systems); the Valence (Problem, Information and Solution); the Focus (Concrete and Abstract). Inter- and intra-rater reliability was tested with Kappa scores on one randomly selected Case Discussion. Standardised weighted mean integration scores were calculated for Case Discussions across utterance deciles, indicating how integrative intensity changed during the conversations. Results: Twenty-three Case Discussions in four different Multidisciplinary Groups were transcribed and coded. Inter- and intra-rater reliability was good as shown by the Prevalence and Bias-Adjusted Kappa Scores for one randomly selected Case Discussion. There were differences in the proportion of utterances per participant type (Consultant 14.6%; presenting general practitioner 38.75%; Chair 7.8%; nonpresenting general practitioner 2.25%; Allied Health Professional 4.8%). Utterances were predominantly coded at low levels of integrative intensity; however, there was a gradual increase (R = 0.71) in integrative intensity during the Case Discussions. Based on the analysis of the minutes and action points arising from the Case Discussions, this improved integration did not translate into actions moving forward. Interpretation: We characterise the Multidisciplinary Groups as having consultative characteristics with some trend towards collaboration, but that best resemble Community-Based Ward Rounds. Although integration scores do increase from the beginning to the end of the Case Discussions, this does not tend to translate into actions for the groups to take forward. The role of the Chair and the improved participation of non-presenting general practitioners and Allied Health Professionals seems important, particularly as the latter contribute well to higher integrative scores. Traditional communication patterns of medical dominance seem to be being perpetuated in the Multidisciplinary Groups. This suggests that more could be done to sensitise participants to the value of full participation from all the members of the group. The method we have developed could be used for ongoing and future evaluations of integrated care projects